14 Nov 2026 · Moody Coliseum (Dallas)
Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs
We have SMU Mustangs at 94.0% and Ball State Cardinals at 6.0%.
Ratings going in: SMU 1836, Ball State 1485, plus 90 for playing at home.
Who is playing: BALL -0.2 game score against its usual; SMU +4.4 game score against its usual. Net 37 rating points to SMU.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | SMU | Ball State |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 94.0% | 6.0% |
| Polymarket | 88.5% | 11.5% |
| Kalshi | 95.0% | 5.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Ball State Cardinals LLW, SMU Mustangs WWW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs?
PodiumOracle's model makes SMU Mustangs the favourite at 94%, with Ball State Cardinals at 6%. The markets give SMU Mustangs 95% on Kalshi. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 94% favourite still loses 6% of the time.
When and where is Ball State Cardinals at SMU Mustangs?
14 November 2026, at Moody Coliseum (Dallas). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.