12 Nov 2026 · Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
Morgan State Bears at UMBC Retrievers
We have UMBC Retrievers at 83.1% and Morgan State Bears at 16.9%.
Ratings going in: UMBC 1655, Morgan St 1451, plus 90 for playing at home.
Who is playing: MORG +3.0 game score against its usual; UMBC +0.9 game score against its usual. Net 17 rating points to MORG.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | UMBC | Morgan St |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 83.1% | 16.9% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 69.1% | 30.9% |
| Polymarket | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| Kalshi | 71.0% | 29.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Morgan State Bears WWW, UMBC Retrievers LLW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Morgan State Bears at UMBC Retrievers?
PodiumOracle's model makes UMBC Retrievers the favourite at 83%, with Morgan State Bears at 17%. The markets give UMBC Retrievers 72% on Polymarket, 72% on Kalshi and 69% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 83% favourite still loses 17% of the time.
When and where is Morgan State Bears at UMBC Retrievers?
12 November 2026, at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.