How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1383 | 0.511 | 74% |
| Base rate | 1383 | 0.683 | 57% |
| Recent form | 1383 | 0.603 | 69% |
Only games ESPN carries are in the file: most Division I games in recent seasons, fewer in the early ones, so the first few seasons mainly warm the ratings up.
The title odds use an approximate 16-team tournament of the best teams by simulated wins and rating, on neutral fields. The real field is 18, with automatic bids for conference champions and play-in games; the model doesn't know conference membership, so it picks on merit.
Faceoff specialists and goalies matter a lot in lacrosse; the model only sees team results.
The season runs from February to Memorial Day; outside it the pages show how the last one finished.