Lacrosse · 2026 season over
NCAA men's lacrosse forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Princeton Tigers, 33%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 May 2026 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Princeton Tigers | 9–16 | 61% |
| 23 May 2026 | Duke Blue Devils at Princeton Tigers | 7–14 | 71% |
| 23 May 2026 | Syracuse Orange at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 7–15 | 70% |
| 17 May 2026 | Penn State Nittany Lions at Princeton Tigers | 10–14 | 58% |
| 17 May 2026 | Georgetown Hoyas at Duke Blue Devils | 6–16 | 51% |
| 16 May 2026 | Johns Hopkins Blue Jays at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 9–15 | 84% |
| 16 May 2026 | Syracuse Orange at North Carolina Tar Heels | 13–11 | 49% |
| 10 May 2026 | Jacksonville Dolphins at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 5–18 | 87% |
| 10 May 2026 | Marist Red Foxes at Princeton Tigers | 8–17 | 95% |
| 10 May 2026 | Yale Bulldogs at Syracuse Orange | 15–16 | 71% |
| 10 May 2026 | Georgetown Hoyas at Virginia Cavaliers | 14–10 | 34% |
| 9 May 2026 | UAlbany Great Danes at North Carolina Tar Heels | 6–24 | 80% |
Chance of winning the national championship
| Team | Make tournament | Quarterfinal | Final Four | Title game | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Princeton Tigers | >99% | 88% | 68% | 49% | 33% |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 99% | 71% | 44% | 26% | 14% |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 98% | 69% | 41% | 22% | 11% |
| Duke Blue Devils | 94% | 54% | 27% | 13% | 6% |
| Richmond Spiders | 96% | 55% | 26% | 12% | 5% |
| Virginia Cavaliers | 93% | 52% | 24% | 11% | 5% |
| Cornell Big Red | 93% | 52% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| Syracuse Orange | 91% | 50% | 23% | 10% | 5% |
| Georgetown Hoyas | 92% | 48% | 21% | 9% | 4% |
| Army Black Knights | 95% | 50% | 22% | 9% | 4% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 national championship?
Princeton Tigers, at 33%, ahead of Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14%), Penn State Nittany Lions (11%) and Duke Blue Devils (6%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NCAA men's lacrosse predictions?
On 1,383 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 74% of the time. Its log loss was 0.511, against 0.683 for the base rate and 0.603 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.497 against the bookmakers' 0.466 over 82 games and 0.505 against Kalshi's 0.501 over 425 games (lower is better).
How are the NCAA men's lacrosse predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.