Division I
North Carolina Tar Heels
Rated 1802 (No. 12 of 77), 12–4 this season, 2% to win the national championship.
Season outlook
From 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from today's ratings.
- 72%
- Make tournament
- 32%
- Quarterfinal
- 13%
- Final Four
- 5%
- Title game
- 2%
- Win title
- 8.2
- Projected wins
Rating
North Carolina Tar Heels is rated 1802, No. 12 of 77. The gap between two ratings is what the model turns into a win chance: about 100 points makes a 64% favourite on a neutral ground.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16 May 2026 | Syracuse Orange at North Carolina Tar Heels | 13–11 | 49% |
| 9 May 2026 | UAlbany Great Danes at North Carolina Tar Heels | 6–24 | 80% |
Questions and answers
What is North Carolina Tar Heels' chance of winning the 2027 national championship?
2%, from 10,000 simulations of the next season. North Carolina Tar Heels are No. 12 of 77 in PodiumOracle's power ratings, updated 12 November 2026.