Softball · 2026 season over
NCAA softball forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Texas Longhorns, 18%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Jun 2026 | Texas Longhorns vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | 4–1 | 61% |
| 4 Jun 2026 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Texas Longhorns | 3–7 | 57% |
| 2 Jun 2026 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Alabama Crimson Tide | 2–0 | 41% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Texas Longhorns vs Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 5–2 | 57% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Tennessee Lady Volunteers vs Texas Longhorns | 0–4 | 60% |
| 1 Jun 2026 | Alabama Crimson Tide vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | 4–5 | 38% |
| 31 May 2026 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Texas Longhorns | 1–3 | 46% |
| 31 May 2026 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs UCLA Bruins | 8–7 | 44% |
| 30 May 2026 | UCLA Bruins vs Arkansas Razorbacks | 11–0 | 49% |
| 30 May 2026 | Texas Tech Red Raiders vs Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 1–2 | 49% |
| 30 May 2026 | Nebraska Cornhuskers vs Alabama Crimson Tide | 1–5 | 47% |
| 29 May 2026 | Arkansas Razorbacks vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | 3–5 | 58% |
Chance of winning the national championship
| Team | Make tournament | Super regional | Women's College World Series | Championship series | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Longhorns | 100% | 85% | 65% | 29% | 18% |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 100% | 82% | 60% | 22% | 13% |
| Nebraska Cornhuskers | 100% | 81% | 60% | 22% | 12% |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 100% | 77% | 53% | 17% | 9% |
| UCLA Bruins | 100% | 78% | 54% | 17% | 9% |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 100% | 76% | 52% | 15% | 8% |
| Arkansas Razorbacks | 100% | 69% | 42% | 11% | 5% |
| Tennessee Lady Volunteers | 100% | 67% | 39% | 10% | 5% |
| Florida Gators | >99% | 63% | 35% | 8% | 4% |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 100% | 60% | 31% | 7% | 4% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 national championship?
Texas Longhorns, at 18%, ahead of Alabama Crimson Tide (13%), Nebraska Cornhuskers (12%) and Oklahoma Sooners (9%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's NCAA softball predictions?
On 9,144 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 75% of the time. Its log loss was 0.503, against 0.675 for the base rate and 0.565 for recent form.
How are the NCAA softball predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.