How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 9144 | 0.503 | 75% |
| Base rate | 9144 | 0.675 | 59% |
| Recent form | 9144 | 0.565 | 71% |
Only games ESPN carries are in the file: most Division I games in recent seasons.
The title odds use an approximate 64-team tournament of conference leaders and the best of the rest, seeded by simulated wins and rating. Regionals and the Women's College World Series are double-elimination and super regionals best-of-three in reality; here each round is one game.
Pitchers are not in the model yet; in softball an ace can carry a team through a weekend.
The season runs from February to June; outside it the pages show how the last one finished.