12 Nov 2026 · Save Mart Center
New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs
We have Fresno State Bulldogs at 41.6% and New Mexico Lobos at 58.4%.
Ratings going in: Fresno St 1563, New Mexico 1715, plus 75 for playing at home.
Who is playing: UNM +0.1 game score against its usual; FRES +2.4 game score against its usual. Net 18 rating points to FRES.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Fresno St | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 41.6% | 58.4% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 64.3% | 35.7% |
| Polymarket | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| Kalshi | 69.0% | 31.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: New Mexico Lobos LW, Fresno State Bulldogs WL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs?
PodiumOracle's model makes New Mexico Lobos the favourite at 58%, with Fresno State Bulldogs at 42%. The markets give New Mexico Lobos 30% on Polymarket, 31% on Kalshi and 36% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 58% favourite still loses 42% of the time.
When and where is New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs?
12 November 2026, at Save Mart Center. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.