How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 11665 | 0.463 | 77% |
| Base rate | 11665 | 0.663 | 63% |
| Recent form | 11665 | 0.536 | 73% |
Every Division I game since 2002 moves the ratings, and so do games against teams from lower divisions; a team new to the file starts 150 points below average. Only Division I teams are in the tables and the title odds.
The title odds use an approximate tournament: each conference's best team by record gets in, the rest of the 64 are the best left by simulated wins and rating, seeded on an S-curve on neutral floors. The committee, conference tournaments and the First Four are not modelled.
Roster turnover between seasons is a pull toward average in the rating; the adjustment for who is playing adds what each returning player and transfer did in their box scores, but freshmen start at a bench player's value and recruiting rankings are not used.
Between April and November there are no games; the pages show how the last season finished.