Week 10 · 15 Nov 2026 · MetLife Stadium
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
We have New York Jets at 15.2% and Buffalo Bills at 84.8%.
Ratings going in: Jets 1341, Bills 1677, plus 33 for playing at home.
Starting quarterbacks: BUF (Josh Allen) +0.5 EPA per game against its usual; NYJ (Geno Smith) +0.8 EPA per game against its usual. Net 4 rating points to NYJ.
Weather forecast: 9°C, wind 18 km/h (gusts 22).
The betting market (closing moneyline) has Jets at 22.3%, spread +8.5, total 50.5.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Jets | Bills |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 15.2% | 84.8% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 21.4% | 78.5% |
| Polymarket | 19.5% | 80.5% |
| Kalshi | 20.0% | 80.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Buffalo Bills LWWWW, New York Jets WLLLL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Away | Home |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Jan 2027 | New York Jets at Buffalo Bills | 11% | 89% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Buffalo Bills at New York Jets?
PodiumOracle's model makes Buffalo Bills the favourite at 85%, with New York Jets at 15%. The markets give Buffalo Bills 80% on Polymarket, 81% on Kalshi and 79% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 85% favourite still loses 15% of the time.
When and where is Buffalo Bills at New York Jets?
15 November 2026, at MetLife Stadium (Week 10). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.