How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 603 | 0.622 | 66% |
| Base rate | 603 | 0.695 | 54% |
| Recent form | 603 | 0.640 | 63% |
| Betting market | 603 | 0.601 | 68% |
The playoff odds seed each conference the NFL's way: four division winners by record, then three wild cards; the top seed has a bye and faces the lowest seed left.
Ties in the simulated table break on point differential. The NFL's full tiebreaker list (head to head, division record, common games) is not applied yet.
EPA per play is shown beside the rating in the Teams explorer. It does not move the forecast; it is there so you can see which teams' results run ahead of their play.
Only the quarterback is adjusted for; other injuries move the market straight away and the model only after the results come in.
Travel and rest are in the file but not in the model. Games under a dome or a closed roof get no weather.