PodiumOracle NFL

American football · 2026 season

NFL forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Super Bowl odds. Favourite right now: Buffalo Bills, 21%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayHome
13 Nov 2026Washington Commanders at New York Giants43%57%
15 Nov 2026New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions54%46%
15 Nov 2026Buffalo Bills at New York Jets85%15%
15 Nov 2026Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints46%54%
15 Nov 2026Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns63%37%
15 Nov 2026Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans83%17%
15 Nov 2026Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons56%44%
15 Nov 2026Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts41%59%
15 Nov 2026Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers52%48%
15 Nov 2026Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals76%24%
15 Nov 2026Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders74%26%
15 Nov 2026San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys68%32%
16 Nov 2026Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals41%59%
17 Nov 2026Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens36%64%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
10 Nov 2026Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings23–652%
9 Nov 2026Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears24–2772%
8 Nov 2026Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers17–3876%
8 Nov 2026Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks3–1783%
8 Nov 2026Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots45–2737%
8 Nov 2026Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers44–2264%
8 Nov 2026Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints22–2356%
8 Nov 2026Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts27–2352%
8 Nov 2026Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers26–2171%
8 Nov 2026Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins19–969%
8 Nov 2026Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders20–1363%
8 Nov 2026New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles19–1148%

Chance of winning the Super Bowl

Every team

TeamMake playoffsWin divisionFirst-round byeWin conferenceWin Super Bowl
Buffalo Bills>99%98%48%35%21%
San Francisco 49ers96%81%49%25%11%
Denver Broncos98%73%15%19%10%
Jacksonville Jaguars99%98%20%18%10%
Chicago Bears86%37%17%18%9%
Seattle Seahawks64%13%4%12%7%
Minnesota Vikings82%31%15%14%6%
Detroit Lions76%24%10%11%5%
Cincinnati Bengals96%61%9%9%4%
Pittsburgh Steelers91%36%4%8%4%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026 Super Bowl?

Buffalo Bills, at 21%, ahead of San Francisco 49ers (11%), Denver Broncos (10%) and Jacksonville Jaguars (10%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next NFL games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Washington Commanders at New York Giants (13 November 2026): New York Giants 57%; New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions (15 November 2026): New England Patriots 54%; Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (15 November 2026): Buffalo Bills 85%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's NFL predictions?

On 706 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 66% of the time. Its log loss was 0.620, against 0.696 for the base rate and 0.641 for recent form, and 0.603 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.624 against the bookmakers' 0.620 over 139 games, 0.620 against Polymarket's 0.603 over 707 games and 0.628 against Kalshi's 0.614 over 417 games (lower is better).

How are the NFL predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Super Bowl odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.