Week 10 · 15 Nov 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons
We have Atlanta Falcons at 44.0% and Kansas City Chiefs at 56.0%.
Ratings going in: Falcons 1439, Chiefs 1564, plus 33 for playing at home.
Starting quarterbacks: KC (Patrick Mahomes) -3.1 EPA per game against its usual (doubts over Patrick Mahomes, questionable); ATL (Michael Penix Jr.) +0.2 EPA per game against its usual. Net 50 rating points to ATL.
Weather forecast: 12°C, wind 8 km/h (gusts 9).
The betting market (closing moneyline) has Falcons at 37.8%, spread +3.0, total 46.5.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Falcons | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Polymarket | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Kalshi | 38.0% | 62.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Kansas City Chiefs WWLLW, Atlanta Falcons LLWLL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons?
PodiumOracle's model makes Kansas City Chiefs the favourite at 56%, with Atlanta Falcons at 44%. The markets give Kansas City Chiefs 64% on Polymarket, 64% on Kalshi and 62% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 56% favourite still loses 44% of the time.
When and where is Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons?
15 November 2026, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Week 10). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.