Week 10 · 15 Nov 2026 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
We have Indianapolis Colts at 59.0% and Miami Dolphins at 41.0%.
Ratings going in: Colts 1401, Dolphins 1377, plus 33 for playing at home.
Starting quarterbacks: MIA (Malik Willis) -2.0 EPA per game against its usual (without Malik Willis); IND (Daniel Jones) -1.6 EPA per game against its usual. Net 6 rating points to IND.
Weather forecast: 8°C, wind 6 km/h (gusts 8).
The betting market (closing moneyline) has Colts at 64.5%, spread -3.5, total 38.5.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Colts | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 59.0% | 41.0% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 63.9% | 36.1% |
| Polymarket | 65.5% | 34.5% |
| Kalshi | 65.0% | 35.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Miami Dolphins LLWLL, Indianapolis Colts LLLLL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts?
PodiumOracle's model makes Indianapolis Colts the favourite at 59%, with Miami Dolphins at 41%. The markets give Indianapolis Colts 66% on Polymarket, 66% on Kalshi and 64% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 59% favourite still loses 41% of the time.
When and where is Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts?
15 November 2026, at Lucas Oil Stadium (Week 10). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.