Week 10 · 15 Nov 2026 · Allegiant Stadium
Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders
We have Las Vegas Raiders at 25.9% and Seattle Seahawks at 74.1%.
Ratings going in: Raiders 1406, Seahawks 1630, plus 33 for playing at home.
Starting quarterbacks: SEA (Sam Darnold) -3.3 EPA per game against its usual (without Sam Darnold); LV (Fernando Mendoza) -2.7 EPA per game against its usual. Net 9 rating points to LV.
The betting market (closing moneyline) has Raiders at 28.6%, spread +6.5, total 40.5.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Raiders | Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| Polymarket | 27.5% | 72.5% |
| Kalshi | 28.0% | 72.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Seattle Seahawks LLWLW, Las Vegas Raiders LLLWL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders?
PodiumOracle's model makes Seattle Seahawks the favourite at 74%, with Las Vegas Raiders at 26%. The markets give Seattle Seahawks 73% on Polymarket, 73% on Kalshi and 71% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 74% favourite still loses 26% of the time.
When and where is Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders?
15 November 2026, at Allegiant Stadium (Week 10). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.