15 Nov 2026 · Scotiabank Arena
Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs
We have Toronto Maple Leafs at 43.9% and Edmonton Oilers at 56.1%.
Ratings going in: Maple Leafs 1466, Oilers 1539, plus 35 for playing at home.
Expected starting goalies: EDM (T. Jarry) +0.1 goals saved per start against its usual; TOR (S. Bobrovsky) -0.1 goals saved per start against its usual. Net 6 rating points to EDM.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Maple Leafs | Oilers |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 43.9% | 56.1% |
| Polymarket | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Kalshi | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Edmonton Oilers WLLWW, Toronto Maple Leafs WLLLL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers | 7–2 | 37% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs?
PodiumOracle's model makes Edmonton Oilers the favourite at 56%, with Toronto Maple Leafs at 44%. The markets give Edmonton Oilers 55% on Polymarket and 55% on Kalshi. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 56% favourite still loses 44% of the time.
When and where is Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs?
15 November 2026, at Scotiabank Arena. The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.