How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 2792 | 0.679 | 56% |
| Base rate | 2792 | 0.690 | 54% |
| Recent form | 2792 | 0.689 | 53% |
A game decided in overtime or a shootout counts as a win and a loss for the ratings, but the simulated table gives the loser a point, as the NHL does, at the league's recent overtime rate.
The playoff odds seed the real way: top three in each division, two wild cards per conference, best-of-seven series, and a series under way continues from its score.
The starting goalie is only a small adjustment, and for games to come it is a guess until the starter is named on the day; MoneyPuck models goaltending in far more detail.
Expected goals and shot data are not in this rating yet.