How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 275 | 0.679 | 57% |
| Base rate | 275 | 0.693 | 53% |
| Recent form | 275 | 0.689 | 54% |
Box lacrosse is played indoors, in hockey arenas, so there is no weather.
The playoffs are simulated in the current format: the top eight in one table, single-game quarter-finals, then best-of-three semi-finals and finals. Earlier seasons used division brackets; their games all count for the ratings.
Live scores come from ESPN's scoreboard, matched to the league's games by date and teams.
Goalies and injuries are not in the model.