PodiumOracle PFL

Mixed martial arts · 2026 season

PFL forecasts

Win probabilities for every fight from a rating model fit only on past results.

Upcoming

DateFightFirst namedSecond named
14 Nov 2026Khasan Magomedsharipov vs Adam Borics62%38%
14 Nov 2026Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKee62%38%
14 Nov 2026Lewis McGrillen vs Nawras Abzakh49%51%
14 Nov 2026Connor Hughes vs Shem Rock57%43%
14 Nov 2026Asaël Adjoudj vs Movlid Khaybulaev31%69%
14 Nov 2026Akhmed Magomedov vs Alexei Pergande21%79%
14 Nov 2026Leon Hill vs Khamzat Abaev35%65%
14 Nov 2026Maxwell Djantou Nana vs Denis Goltsov34%66%
14 Nov 2026Khabib Nabiev vs Styve Ngono64%36%
14 Nov 2026Aleksandra Savicheva vs Jacinta Austin47%53%
14 Nov 2026Sergei Bilostenniy vs Vadim Nemkov29%71%
14 Nov 2026Omar El Dafrawy vs Patrick Habirora42%58%
14 Nov 2026Pouya Rahmani vs Oleg Popov26%74%
14 Nov 2026Joji Goto vs Sergio Pettis20%80%
14 Nov 2026David Martinez vs Abubakar Nurmagomedov86%14%

Recent results

All results

DateFightScorePre-game chance of the winner
17 Oct 2026Jena Bishop vs Liz Carmouche1–031%
17 Oct 2026Gabriel Braga vs Timur Khizriev0–180%
17 Oct 2026Rafael do Nascimento vs Sarvarjon Khamidov0–161%
17 Oct 2026Oualy Tandia vs J.P. Saint Louis1–037%
16 Oct 2026Abraham Bably vs Emiliano Sordi0–141%
16 Oct 2026Shannon Clark vs Lucero Acosta1–054%
16 Oct 2026Cássio Barão vs Kevin Pease0–160%
16 Oct 2026Rosario Romero vs Cobey Fehr0–162%
16 Oct 2026Michael Boylan vs Gamid Khizriev0–176%
16 Oct 2026Eliezer Kubanza vs Trey Waters1–037%
16 Oct 2026Paulina Wisniewska vs Chelsea Hackett1–050%
16 Oct 2026Caden Cox vs Noah Hermosillo0–162%

Questions and answers

What are the odds for the next PFL fights?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Khasan Magomedsharipov vs Adam Borics (14 November 2026): Khasan Magomedsharipov 62%; Ernesto Rodriguez vs Rhys McKee (14 November 2026): Ernesto Rodriguez 62%; Lewis McGrillen vs Nawras Abzakh (14 November 2026): Nawras Abzakh 51%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's PFL predictions?

On 401 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 61% of the time. Its log loss was 0.639, against 0.693 for the base rate and 0.654 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.662 against the bookmakers' 0.487 over 133 games (lower is better).

How are the PFL predictions made?

Every fighter has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.