How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 388 | 0.639 | 61% |
| Base rate | 388 | 0.693 | 46% |
| Recent form | 388 | 0.655 | 60% |
Fighters move between promotions, so every rating also counts their UFC and Bellator fights; only PFL fights are forecast and scored in the track record.
The PFL's season tournament (regular-season points, then play-offs) isn't simulated; the page gives each fight's odds and the fighter ratings.
A fight is a win or a loss for the rating, however it ended; a draw counts half each and a no contest not at all.
Ratings carry from one fight to the next with no pull back to average: fighters don't have seasons.
There is no weather here: cards are indoors.
Weight changes, layoffs, age and camp changes are not in the model.
Betting lines aren't in the source, so there is no market comparison.