How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 188 | 0.609 | 71% |
| Base rate | 188 | 0.698 | 65% |
| Recent form | 188 | 0.631 | 71% |
Clubs are rated on their Premiership games and also their Champions Cup and Challenge Cup games, alongside the URC and Top 14 sides they meet there, so the European results put the leagues on one scale. Only Premiership games are scored in the track record.
The simulated table adds bonus points the league's way: four for a win, two for a draw, one for losing by seven or less, one for four tries (at each side's usual rate).
International call-ups during the Six Nations and autumn tests weaken clubs unevenly; the model doesn't know who is away.