Rugby union · 2026–27 season
Premiership forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Premiership title odds. Favourite right now: Bath Rugby, 31%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Gloucester Rugby at Exeter Chiefs | 77% | 2% | 21% |
| 26 Sep 2026 | Bristol Rugby at Sale Sharks | 57% | 3% | 40% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | Saracens at Leicester Tigers | 62% | 3% | 35% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Exeter Chiefs at Bath Rugby | 71% | 3% | 26% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Northampton Saints at Bristol Rugby | 47% | 3% | 49% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Harlequins at Gloucester Rugby | 59% | 3% | 38% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Leicester Tigers at Newcastle Falcons | 27% | 3% | 70% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | Sale Sharks at Saracens | 73% | 3% | 24% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2026 | Newcastle Falcons at Northampton Saints | 26–59 | 91% |
| 25 Sep 2026 | Bath Rugby at Harlequins | 33–17 | 52% |
Chance of winning the Premiership title
| Team | Make semi-finals | Reach final | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bath Rugby | 85% | 54% | 31% |
| Northampton Saints | 72% | 43% | 24% |
| Saracens | 53% | 25% | 12% |
| Leicester Tigers | 51% | 23% | 11% |
| Exeter Chiefs | 48% | 22% | 10% |
| Bristol Rugby | 39% | 16% | 7% |
| Sale Sharks | 28% | 9% | 3% |
| Gloucester Rugby | 15% | 4% | 1% |
| Harlequins | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| Newcastle Falcons | 1% | <1% | <1% |