PodiumOracle Premiership

Rugby union · 2026–27 season

Premiership forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Premiership title odds. Favourite right now: Leicester Tigers, 31%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
4 Dec 2026Bristol Rugby at Bath Rugby29%3%68%
5 Dec 2026Newcastle Falcons at Gloucester Rugby14%2%84%
5 Dec 2026Leicester Tigers at Harlequins48%3%48%
5 Dec 2026Northampton Saints at Saracens46%3%51%
6 Dec 2026Exeter Chiefs at Sale Sharks42%3%55%
18 Dec 2026Bath Rugby at Newcastle Falcons71%3%26%
19 Dec 2026Saracens at Gloucester Rugby39%3%58%
19 Dec 2026Sale Sharks at Leicester Tigers17%2%81%
19 Dec 2026Exeter Chiefs at Northampton Saints19%2%78%
20 Dec 2026Harlequins at Bristol Rugby30%3%67%
26 Dec 2026Newcastle Falcons at Bristol Rugby13%2%86%
26 Dec 2026Gloucester Rugby at Sale Sharks45%3%52%
27 Dec 2026Saracens at Exeter Chiefs42%3%55%
27 Dec 2026Leicester Tigers at Bath Rugby37%3%60%
28 Dec 2026Northampton Saints at Harlequins53%3%44%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
31 Oct 2026Harlequins at Exeter Chiefs31–2831%
31 Oct 2026Newcastle Falcons at Saracens31–3986%
31 Oct 2026Sale Sharks at Bath Rugby28–3677%
31 Oct 2026Gloucester Rugby at Northampton Saints14–2874%
30 Oct 2026Leicester Tigers at Bristol Rugby22–1638%
25 Oct 2026Saracens at Harlequins15–3347%
24 Oct 2026Northampton Saints at Leicester Tigers7–2850%
24 Oct 2026Exeter Chiefs at Bristol Rugby7–2065%
23 Oct 2026Bath Rugby at Gloucester Rugby5–2349%
23 Oct 2026Sale Sharks at Newcastle Falcons3–1736%
11 Oct 2026Harlequins at Sale Sharks24–2867%
11 Oct 2026Newcastle Falcons at Exeter Chiefs28–3485%

Chance of winning the Premiership title

Every team

TeamMake semi-finalsReach finalWin title
Leicester Tigers94%60%31%
Northampton Saints63%36%21%
Bath Rugby69%35%17%
Gloucester Rugby71%29%11%
Bristol Rugby51%20%9%
Saracens40%17%8%
Harlequins8%3%1%
Exeter Chiefs2%1%<1%
Sale Sharks2%1%<1%
Newcastle Falcons<1%<1%<1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Premiership title?

Leicester Tigers, at 31%, ahead of Northampton Saints (21%), Bath Rugby (17%) and Gloucester Rugby (11%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Premiership games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Bristol Rugby at Bath Rugby (4 December 2026): Bath Rugby 68%, a draw 3%; Newcastle Falcons at Gloucester Rugby (5 December 2026): Gloucester Rugby 84%, a draw 2%; Leicester Tigers at Harlequins (5 December 2026): Harlequins 48%, a draw 3%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Premiership predictions?

On 211 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 70% of the time. Its log loss was 0.615, against 0.692 for the base rate and 0.635 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.708 against Polymarket's 0.765 over 58 games (lower is better).

How are the Premiership predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Premiership title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.