How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 235 | 0.678 | 55% |
| Base rate | 235 | 0.687 | 57% |
| Recent form | 235 | 0.682 | 56% |
The table is the PWHL's: three points for a regulation win, two for an overtime or shootout win, one for losing in one. The simulation gives overtime at the league's rate.
With only a few seasons played, the rating's speed, margin of victory and home ice come from the other professional hockey leagues rather than a fit to one short season, and the track record scores the seasons since the first; treat it as indicative.
Goaltending and the players on the ice are not in the rating.
The first seed chooses its semi-final opponent; the simulation assumes it takes the fourth.