Rugby union · 2025 season
The Rugby Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2025 | New Zealand at Australia | 28–14 | 66% |
| 4 Oct 2025 | South Africa at Argentina | 29–27 | 68% |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Australia at New Zealand | 24–33 | 88% |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Argentina at South Africa | 30–67 | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Argentina at Australia | 28–26 | 27% |
| 13 Sep 2025 | South Africa at New Zealand | 43–10 | 28% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Argentina at Australia | 24–28 | 64% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | South Africa at New Zealand | 17–24 | 62% |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Australia at South Africa | 22–30 | 87% |
| 23 Aug 2025 | New Zealand at Argentina | 23–29 | 22% |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Australia at South Africa | 38–22 | 7% |
| 16 Aug 2025 | New Zealand at Argentina | 41–24 | 71% |
Questions and answers
How accurate are PodiumOracle's The Rugby Championship predictions?
On 30 games from held-back seasons (2023 to 2025), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 73% of the time. Its log loss was 0.676, against 0.753 for the base rate and 0.695 for recent form.
How are The Rugby Championship predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.