Rugby union · 2025 season
The Rugby Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Oct 2025 | New Zealand at Australia | 28–14 | 66% |
| 4 Oct 2025 | South Africa at Argentina | 29–27 | 68% |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Australia at New Zealand | 24–33 | 88% |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Argentina at South Africa | 30–67 | 88% |
| 13 Sep 2025 | Argentina at Australia | 28–26 | 27% |
| 13 Sep 2025 | South Africa at New Zealand | 43–10 | 28% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | Argentina at Australia | 24–28 | 64% |
| 6 Sep 2025 | South Africa at New Zealand | 17–24 | 62% |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Australia at South Africa | 22–30 | 87% |
| 23 Aug 2025 | New Zealand at Argentina | 23–29 | 22% |
| 16 Aug 2025 | Australia at South Africa | 38–22 | 7% |
| 16 Aug 2025 | New Zealand at Argentina | 41–24 | 71% |