How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 30 | 0.676 | 73% |
| Base rate | 30 | 0.753 | 53% |
| Recent form | 30 | 0.695 | 70% |
Ratings use every game in the related competitions (see Sources); only The Rugby Championship games are scored in the track record.
The simulated table adds bonus points the union way: four for a win, two for a draw, one for losing by seven or less, one for four tries (at each side's usual rate).
In 2026 the Rugby Championship gave way to World Rugby's new Nations Championship, so there is no 2026 edition to forecast; the four nations now play in that, and its forecasts are on the Nations Championship page (/nations-championship). Their ratings keep updating from every test they play.
Injuries and selection are not in the model.