PodiumOracle Serie A

Football · 2026–27 season

Serie A forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Internazionale, 70%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
21 Nov 2026Lecce at Lazio10%17%73%
21 Nov 2026Cagliari at Como12%19%69%
21 Nov 2026AS Roma at Parma68%20%12%
21 Nov 2026Torino at Napoli13%21%66%
22 Nov 2026Venezia at Juventus7%13%80%
22 Nov 2026Genoa at Sassuolo33%29%38%
22 Nov 2026Udinese at Bologna17%23%60%
22 Nov 2026Frosinone at AC Milan12%19%69%
22 Nov 2026Internazionale at Atalanta59%24%17%
23 Nov 2026Fiorentina at Monza50%27%23%
27 Nov 2026Bologna at Venezia61%23%16%
28 Nov 2026Parma at Frosinone26%28%46%
28 Nov 2026Lazio at Torino50%27%23%
28 Nov 2026Genoa at Internazionale6%11%83%
29 Nov 2026Fiorentina at Udinese37%29%33%
29 Nov 2026Napoli at Sassuolo58%24%18%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
8 Nov 2026Juventus at Fiorentina2–228%
8 Nov 2026Como at Internazionale0–262%
8 Nov 2026Atalanta at Monza1–059%
8 Nov 2026AC Milan at Genoa2–152%
8 Nov 2026Lazio at Napoli1–128%
7 Nov 2026Sassuolo at AS Roma0–377%
7 Nov 2026Bologna at Parma2–146%
7 Nov 2026Frosinone at Cagliari0–139%
7 Nov 2026Lecce at Torino1–126%
6 Nov 2026Udinese at Venezia1–226%

Chance of winning the title

Every team

TeamWin titleTop fourRelegated
Internazionale70%99%0%
AS Roma20%92%0%
Lazio5%66%0%
AC Milan2%57%0%
Como2%46%0%
Juventus<1%16%0%
Napoli<1%18%0%
Bologna0%4%<1%
Atalanta0%2%<1%
Frosinone0%<1%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Serie A title?

Internazionale, at 70%, ahead of AS Roma (20%), Lazio (5%) and AC Milan (2%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Serie A games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Lecce at Lazio (21 November 2026): Lazio 73%, a draw 17%; Cagliari at Como (21 November 2026): Como 69%, a draw 19%; AS Roma at Parma (21 November 2026): AS Roma 68%, a draw 20%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Serie A predictions?

On 870 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 53% of the time. Its log loss was 0.979, against 1.085 for the base rate and 1.012 for recent form, and 0.957 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.943 against the bookmakers' 0.942 over 280 games, 0.976 against Polymarket's 0.961 over 488 games and 0.975 against Kalshi's 0.959 over 484 games (lower is better).

How are the Serie A predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Serie A title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.