PodiumOracle SHL

Ice hockey · 2026–27 season

SHL forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Le Mat Trophy odds. Favourite right now: Skellefteå AIK, 31%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayHome
12 Nov 2026Djurgårdens IF at Färjestad BK27%73%
12 Nov 2026Örebro Hockey at Björklöven43%57%
12 Nov 2026Malmö Redhawks at Frölunda HC36%64%
12 Nov 2026Skellefteå AIK at Brynäs IF56%44%
12 Nov 2026Luleå Hockey at HV7154%46%
12 Nov 2026Rögle BK at Linköping HC56%44%
12 Nov 2026Timrå IK at Växjö Lakers41%59%
14 Nov 2026Växjö Lakers at Malmö Redhawks39%61%
14 Nov 2026Frölunda HC at Rögle BK47%53%
14 Nov 2026Timrå IK at HV7149%51%
14 Nov 2026Linköping HC at Skellefteå AIK23%77%
14 Nov 2026Djurgårdens IF at Örebro Hockey42%58%
14 Nov 2026Brynäs IF at Björklöven47%53%
14 Nov 2026Färjestad BK at Luleå Hockey55%45%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
31 Oct 2026Linköping HC at Frölunda HC1–472%
31 Oct 2026Björklöven at Skellefteå AIK3–572%
31 Oct 2026Färjestad BK at Växjö Lakers5–156%
31 Oct 2026Brynäs IF at Djurgårdens IF2–351%
31 Oct 2026HV71 at Malmö Redhawks2–368%
31 Oct 2026Rögle BK at Örebro Hockey2–348%
31 Oct 2026Luleå Hockey at Timrå IK3–247%
29 Oct 2026Linköping HC at Skellefteå AIK1–375%
29 Oct 2026Färjestad BK at Brynäs IF5–453%
29 Oct 2026Malmö Redhawks at Rögle BK3–036%
29 Oct 2026Växjö Lakers at Timrå IK0–353%
29 Oct 2026Frölunda HC at Örebro Hockey2–343%

Chance of winning the Le Mat Trophy

Every team

TeamMake playoffsStraight to quarter-finalsQuarter-finalSemi-finalFinalWin Le Mat TrophyFinish last
Skellefteå AIK>99%99%>99%77%52%31%0%
Färjestad BK100%>99%>99%78%54%31%0%
Frölunda HC99%93%97%63%32%16%<1%
Rögle BK94%66%83%41%17%7%<1%
Malmö Redhawks95%68%83%37%13%5%<1%
Luleå Hockey85%44%66%26%9%3%1%
Brynäs IF69%23%48%16%5%2%4%
Växjö Lakers58%16%37%11%4%1%7%
Örebro Hockey77%31%52%16%4%1%2%
Björklöven59%17%37%11%3%1%6%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Le Mat Trophy?

Skellefteå AIK, at 31%, ahead of Färjestad BK (31%), Frölunda HC (16%) and Rögle BK (7%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next SHL games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Djurgårdens IF at Färjestad BK (12 November 2026): Färjestad BK 73%; Örebro Hockey at Björklöven (12 November 2026): Björklöven 57%; Malmö Redhawks at Frölunda HC (12 November 2026): Frölunda HC 64%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's SHL predictions?

On 917 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 61% of the time. Its log loss was 0.669, against 0.681 for the base rate and 0.677 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.665 against the bookmakers' 0.668 over 250 games, 0.613 against Polymarket's 0.616 over 132 games and 0.659 against Kalshi's 0.660 over 243 games (lower is better).

How are the SHL predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Le Mat Trophy odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.