How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 834 | 0.674 | 60% |
| Base rate | 834 | 0.683 | 57% |
| Recent form | 834 | 0.680 | 57% |
The table is the SHL's: three points for a win in regulation, two for a win in overtime or a shootout, one for losing in one.
The playoff odds follow the current format: the top six go straight to the quarter-finals, seventh to tenth play best-of-three play-ins, then best-of-seven rounds re-seeded so the best team left meets the worst.
The team that finishes last goes down, or into a relegation series with HockeyAllsvenskan; the page shows the chance of finishing last but doesn't simulate the qualifiers.
Goaltending is not in the rating, and live scores aren't shown for the SHL yet.