21 Feb 2026 · Principality Stadium
Scotland at Wales
Scotland 26 – 23 Wales · Scotland won. We had Wales at 15.0%, a draw at 1.8% and Scotland at 83.1%.
Ratings before the game: Wales 1401, Scotland 1805, plus 115 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 10°C, wind 24 km/h (gusts 39), rain 0.1 mm/h.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Wales | Draw | Scotland |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 15.0% | 1.8% | 83.1% |
| Bookmakers (1 book) | 10.3% | 2.6% | 87.1% |
| Polymarket | 12.4% | 2.0% | 85.6% |
| Kalshi | 13.2% | 6.1% | 80.7% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Scotland LW, Wales LL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Scotland at Wales?
Scotland won 26–23 on 21 February 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Scotland 83%.