Rugby union · 2026 season over
Six Nations forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Ireland, 41%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Mar 2026 | Scotland at Ireland | 21–43 | 82% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | Italy at Wales | 17–31 | 21% |
| 14 Mar 2026 | England at France | 46–48 | 81% |
| 7 Mar 2026 | France at Scotland | 40–50 | 32% |
| 7 Mar 2026 | England at Italy | 18–23 | 36% |
| 6 Mar 2026 | Wales at Ireland | 17–27 | 99% |
| 22 Feb 2026 | Italy at France | 8–33 | 93% |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Ireland at England | 42–21 | 31% |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Scotland at Wales | 26–23 | 83% |
| 15 Feb 2026 | France at Wales | 54–12 | 95% |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Italy at Ireland | 13–20 | 88% |
| 14 Feb 2026 | England at Scotland | 20–31 | 23% |
Chance of winning the Six Nations title
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 Six Nations title?
Ireland, at 41%, ahead of France (25%), England (23%) and Scotland (11%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Six Nations predictions?
On 45 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 73% of the time. Its log loss was 0.622, against 0.740 for the base rate and 0.699 for recent form.
How are the Six Nations predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.