How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 905 | 0.600 | 69% |
| Base rate | 905 | 0.689 | 55% |
| Recent form | 905 | 0.629 | 67% |
Expansion teams start at an average rating and find their level from their results.
The playoff odds play the real format: the top eight by record, a fixed bracket, best of three, best of five and a best-of-seven final. A series already under way continues from its current score.
Rest and travel are not in the model.
Who is playing is judged from box scores and the injury report, not from lineups announced before tip-off, so a late scratch can be missed.