Basketball · 2026 season over
WNBA forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Atlanta Dream, 25%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov 2026 | Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries | 63–68 | 51% |
| 29 Oct 2026 | Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream | 69–80 | 58% |
| 27 Oct 2026 | Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries | 55–64 | 50% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream | 67–62 | 35% |
| 22 Oct 2026 | Golden State Valkyries at Atlanta Dream | 71–97 | 61% |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries | 79–65 | 42% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Atlanta Dream at Golden State Valkyries | 64–68 | 56% |
| 9 Oct 2026 | Atlanta Dream at New York Liberty | 85–83 | 53% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Golden State Valkyries at Las Vegas Aces | 87–77 | 55% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream | 98–101 | 64% |
| 8 Oct 2026 | Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries | 81–83 | 70% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream | 82–92 | 67% |
Chance of winning the WNBA championship
| Team | Make playoffs | Top four | Semifinals | Reach Finals | Win title |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Dream | 95% | 73% | 65% | 41% | 25% |
| Golden State Valkyries | 94% | 69% | 62% | 38% | 22% |
| Las Vegas Aces | 83% | 45% | 43% | 21% | 10% |
| Indiana Fever | 81% | 43% | 43% | 21% | 10% |
| New York Liberty | 83% | 45% | 43% | 21% | 10% |
| Minnesota Lynx | 77% | 37% | 39% | 19% | 8% |
| Dallas Wings | 72% | 31% | 33% | 14% | 6% |
| Washington Mystics | 72% | 31% | 33% | 14% | 5% |
| Portland Fire | 31% | 6% | 9% | 3% | 1% |
| Phoenix Mercury | 32% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 1% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 WNBA championship?
Atlanta Dream, at 25%, ahead of Golden State Valkyries (22%), Las Vegas Aces (10%) and Indiana Fever (10%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's WNBA predictions?
On 928 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 69% of the time. Its log loss was 0.596, against 0.688 for the base rate and 0.627 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.592 against the bookmakers' 0.582 over 352 games, 0.601 against Polymarket's 0.594 over 638 games and 0.600 against Kalshi's 0.596 over 643 games (lower is better).
How are the WNBA predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.