How good are these forecasts?

Every nation is rated on all its women's T20 internationals, Elo-style, with the margin of victory (a win by wickets counts about 8 runs a wicket).

A season here is a World Cup cycle: every international from the day after one final to the next. Bilateral series are forecast and rated but aren't in the event's table.

The 2028 Women's T20 World Cup is simulated in full in every run: the groups play each other once and the top sides go through to the semi-finals, then the final.

The field isn't settled yet, so this is a provisional one: the hosts and the nations that would qualify on today's ratings, seeded into groups by rating. It changes as results come in and will be replaced by the real draw once it's announced.

The ICC hasn't announced the 2028 hosts, dates or format yet. Until it does, the World Cup is played here like the 2026 one in England: twelve teams in two groups of six, the top two of each into the semi-finals, with the 2026 World Cup's twelve nations.

Every international is treated as neutral: home advantage isn't modelled, because the archive doesn't say who was at home. That flatters touring sides a little.

Squad selection (rested stars, part-time associate sides) is not in the model.

Women's T20 internationals include many one-sided associate matches; the ratings of nations that rarely meet the top sides are only loosely tied to theirs.

The champion record replays past World Cups from the archive, so a match abandoned without a result (or one the archive is missing) isn't in the replay, and sides level on points are split by run margins rather than net run rate: a replayed group can finish in a different order from the real one. An edition whose knockouts the archive can't piece together is left out.