How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 649 | 0.617 | 68% |
| Base rate | 649 | 0.734 | 57% |
| Recent form | 649 | 0.648 | 66% |
| Betting market | 649 | 0.600 | 69% |
The finals are simulated with the real system: since 2026 a wildcard round (7th v 10th, 8th v 9th) and then the top-eight finals (qualifying and elimination finals, semi-finals, preliminary finals and the grand final at the MCG). Finals already played keep their real result; seasons before 2026 are replayed in the top-eight system they used.
Home advantage is learned from every game; interstate travel is where most of it comes from, and the model does not yet separate a Melbourne derby at the MCG from a trip to Perth.
The market comparison uses the implied probabilities Squiggle records from the bookmakers (its 'Punters' source).
Selection, injuries and suspensions are not in the model.
Games under the Docklands roof are treated as indoors for the weather.