Australian football · 2026 season over
AFL forecasts
The 2026 season is over. Until the 2027 schedule is out, here is an early look: last season's schedule played 10,000 times a year on, with every rating carried over the way the model carries it between seasons. Early favourite: Brisbane Lions, 20%. The full early look.
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle | 96–89 | 52% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn | 131–122 | 48% |
| 18 Sep 2026 | Fremantle at Sydney | 83–71 | 39% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | Adelaide at Brisbane Lions | 91–144 | 64% |
| 11 Sep 2026 | Geelong at Fremantle | 106–120 | 51% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions at Sydney | 88–141 | 53% |
| 5 Sep 2026 | Western Bulldogs at Adelaide | 68–90 | 67% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | Carlton at Geelong | 74–107 | 68% |
| 3 Sep 2026 | Hawthorn at Fremantle | 72–40 | 32% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | Carlton at Melbourne | 74–55 | 47% |
| 28 Aug 2026 | Collingwood at Western Bulldogs | 93–96 | 54% |
| 23 Aug 2026 | Port Adelaide at Essendon | 104–95 | 64% |
Chance of winning the premiership
| Team | Finals (top ten) | Past the wildcard round | Top four | Preliminary final | Grand final | Premiership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 95% | 89% | 63% | 63% | 37% | 20% |
| Fremantle | 91% | 83% | 53% | 53% | 29% | 15% |
| Geelong | 89% | 80% | 49% | 49% | 27% | 14% |
| Sydney | 90% | 80% | 50% | 49% | 27% | 13% |
| Hawthorn | 86% | 75% | 41% | 41% | 20% | 10% |
| Adelaide | 79% | 66% | 31% | 31% | 15% | 7% |
| Carlton | 78% | 64% | 29% | 29% | 14% | 6% |
| Collingwood | 64% | 49% | 18% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| Melbourne | 68% | 51% | 20% | 19% | 8% | 3% |
| Western Bulldogs | 57% | 41% | 14% | 15% | 6% | 3% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2027 premiership?
Brisbane Lions, at 20%, ahead of Fremantle (15%), Geelong (14%) and Sydney (13%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the next season, on last season's schedule with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's AFL predictions?
On 650 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 68% of the time. Its log loss was 0.617, against 0.734 for the base rate and 0.648 for recent form, and 0.600 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.561 against the bookmakers' 0.529 over 177 games, 0.533 against Polymarket's 0.531 over 32 games and 0.561 against Kalshi's 0.520 over 204 games (lower is better).
How are the AFL predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.