Australian football · 2026 season
AFL forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the premiership odds. Favourite right now: Brisbane Lions, 52%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions vs Fremantle | 48% | 0% | 52% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep 2026 | Brisbane Lions at Hawthorn | 131–122 | 48% |
Chance of winning the premiership
| Team | Finals (top ten) | Past the wildcard round | Top four | Preliminary final | Grand final | Premiership |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane Lions | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 52% |
| Fremantle | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 48% |
| Sydney | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Hawthorn | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% |
| Adelaide | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Geelong | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Melbourne | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Western Bulldogs | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Collingwood | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Carlton | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |