9 May 2026 · Estadio do Maracana
Vitória at Fluminense
Vitória 2 – 2 Fluminense · Draw. We had Fluminense at 59.2%, a draw at 24.6% and Vitória at 16.3%.
Ratings before the game: Fluminense 1568, Vitória 1489, plus 95 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 28°C, wind 6 km/h (gusts 18).
The betting market (closing odds) had Fluminense at 62.4%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Fluminense | Draw | Vitória |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 59.2% | 24.6% | 16.3% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 64.5% | 21.9% | 13.6% |
| Polymarket | 63.8% | 21.6% | 14.6% |
| Kalshi | 64.0% | 21.5% | 14.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Vitória DWDLW, Fluminense DLWWL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Fluminense at Vitória | 3–0 | 36% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won Vitória at Fluminense?
It was a 2–2 draw on 9 May 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave a draw 25%.