How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1037 | 1.012 | 50% |
| Base rate | 1037 | 1.051 | 48% |
| Recent form | 1037 | 1.029 | 48% |
| Betting market | 1037 | 0.989 | 52% |
Brazil's home advantage is one of the biggest in football: long flights across a continent-sized country, heat and humidity in the north; the model's home edge is fit on the tuning seasons.
The market comparison uses the bookmakers' closing odds with their margin taken out.
Libertadores places depend on the cup winners too; "Libertadores places" here is the top six.
Clubs rest players for the Libertadores and the Copa do Brasil; the ratings only see results.