Football · 2026 season
Brasileirão forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Flamengo, 70%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | Santos at São Paulo | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | Red Bull Bragantino at Atlético-MG | 52% | 27% | 21% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bahia at Athletico-PR | 1–2 | 46% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Red Bull Bragantino at Flamengo | 1–2 | 71% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Fluminense at Corinthians | 3–1 | 31% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Cruzeiro at Vitória | 3–1 | 34% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Palmeiras at Grêmio | 0–0 | 29% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | Internacional at São Paulo | 0–1 | 52% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Coritiba at Vasco da Gama | 0–5 | 47% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Santos at Remo | 2–1 | 28% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Botafogo at Mirassol | 0–2 | 42% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Chapecoense at Atlético-MG | 1–1 | 18% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top four | Libertadores places | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 70% | >99% | 100% | 0% |
| Palmeiras | 29% | >99% | 100% | 0% |
| Athletico-PR | <1% | 65% | 94% | 0% |
| Fluminense | <1% | 67% | 94% | 0% |
| Cruzeiro | <1% | 36% | 79% | 0% |
| Bahia | 0% | 22% | 68% | 0% |
| Atlético-MG | 0% | 6% | 31% | <1% |
| Santos | 0% | 1% | 8% | 1% |
| São Paulo | 0% | 1% | 9% | 1% |
| Red Bull Bragantino | 0% | 1% | 9% | 1% |