Football · 2026 season
Brasileirão forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Flamengo, 86%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Away | Draw | Home |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov 2026 | Atlético-MG at Mirassol | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| 14 Nov 2026 | Vasco da Gama at Chapecoense | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Santos at Coritiba | 32% | 31% | 37% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Chapecoense at Remo | 14% | 23% | 64% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Athletico-PR at Flamengo | 10% | 18% | 73% |
| 18 Nov 2026 | Palmeiras at Cruzeiro | 35% | 31% | 35% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov 2026 | Fluminense at Vitória | 3–0 | 36% |
| 6 Nov 2026 | Bahia at Cruzeiro | 2–3 | 54% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Remo at Palmeiras | 1–6 | 77% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Corinthians at São Paulo | 0–0 | 28% |
| 5 Nov 2026 | Atlético-MG at Botafogo | 0–1 | 46% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Vasco da Gama at Athletico-PR | 3–1 | 18% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Grêmio at Flamengo | 1–3 | 77% |
| 4 Nov 2026 | Coritiba at Internacional | 0–1 | 54% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top four | Libertadores places | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | 86% | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Palmeiras | 14% | 100% | 100% | 0% |
| Cruzeiro | 0% | 98% | 100% | 0% |
| Fluminense | 0% | 80% | 99% | 0% |
| Athletico-PR | 0% | 11% | 86% | 0% |
| Bahia | 0% | 10% | 75% | 0% |
| Atlético-MG | 0% | 1% | 30% | 0% |
| Santos | 0% | <1% | 4% | 0% |
| Red Bull Bragantino | 0% | <1% | 5% | 0% |
| São Paulo | 0% | 0% | <1% | 0% |
Questions and answers
Who is favoured to win the 2026 Brasileirão title?
Flamengo, at 86%, ahead of Palmeiras (14%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.
What are the odds for the next Brasileirão games?
According to PodiumOracle's model: Atlético-MG at Mirassol (14 November 2026): Mirassol 46%, a draw 29%; Vasco da Gama at Chapecoense (14 November 2026): Vasco da Gama 42%, a draw 30%; Santos at Coritiba (18 November 2026): Coritiba 37%, a draw 31%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Brasileirão predictions?
On 1,099 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 51% of the time. Its log loss was 1.005, against 1.048 for the base rate and 1.025 for recent form, and 0.981 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.987 against the bookmakers' 0.964 over 273 games, 0.994 against Polymarket's 0.973 over 391 games and 0.994 against Kalshi's 0.969 over 350 games (lower is better).
How are the Brasileirão predictions made?
Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Brasileirão title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.