10 May 2026 · Neo Química Arena
São Paulo at Corinthians
São Paulo 2 – 3 Corinthians · Corinthians won. We had Corinthians at 42.8%, a draw at 29.8% and São Paulo at 27.3%.
Ratings before the game: Corinthians 1498, São Paulo 1533, plus 95 for playing at home.
Weather during the game: 13°C, wind 4 km/h (gusts 26), rain 1.3 mm/h.
The betting market (closing odds) had Corinthians at 45.5%.
What the markets said before the start
Each source's last price before the start, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Corinthians | Draw | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 42.8% | 29.8% | 27.3% |
| Bookmakers (2 books) | 47.3% | 29.8% | 22.8% |
| Polymarket | 45.3% | 30.3% | 24.4% |
| Kalshi | 45.5% | 30.5% | 24.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: São Paulo WLLWD, Corinthians LDDWL.
Other meetings this season
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2026 | Corinthians at São Paulo | 0–0 | 28% |
The teams
Questions and answers
Who won São Paulo at Corinthians?
Corinthians won 3–2 on 10 May 2026. Before the start PodiumOracle's model gave Corinthians 43%.