PodiumOracle Bundesliga

Football · 2026–27 season

Bundesliga forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Bayern Munich, 81%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
20 Nov 2026FC Cologne at Bayern Munich4%9%87%
21 Nov 2026SC Freiburg at SV Elversberg33%29%38%
21 Nov 2026Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach61%23%16%
21 Nov 2026RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin51%27%23%
21 Nov 2026TSG Hoffenheim at Eintracht Frankfurt28%29%43%
21 Nov 2026SC Paderborn 07 at Bayer Leverkusen9%16%74%
21 Nov 2026VfB Stuttgart at Schalke 0455%25%20%
22 Nov 2026Mainz at FC Augsburg29%29%42%
22 Nov 2026Hamburg SV at Werder Bremen23%27%49%
27 Nov 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach at Werder Bremen22%27%51%
28 Nov 2026Schalke 04 at SC Paderborn 0727%28%44%
28 Nov 2026SV Elversberg at FC Cologne37%29%34%
28 Nov 2026Bayern Munich at Hamburg SV73%17%10%
28 Nov 20261. FC Union Berlin at Mainz21%26%53%
28 Nov 2026Eintracht Frankfurt at VfB Stuttgart19%25%56%
29 Nov 2026RB Leipzig at SC Freiburg35%29%35%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
8 Nov 2026Schalke 04 at TSG Hoffenheim1–262%
8 Nov 20261. FC Union Berlin at SC Freiburg0–258%
8 Nov 2026Bayer Leverkusen at FC Cologne2–152%
7 Nov 2026Werder Bremen at VfB Stuttgart0–160%
7 Nov 2026Eintracht Frankfurt at SC Paderborn 072–229%
7 Nov 2026Bayern Munich at Mainz2–166%
7 Nov 2026FC Augsburg at RB Leipzig2–562%
7 Nov 2026SV Elversberg at Borussia Dortmund1–268%
6 Nov 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach at Hamburg SV1–344%

Chance of winning the title

Every team

TeamWin titleTop fourRelegation play-offRelegated
Bayern Munich81%>99%0%0%
Borussia Dortmund15%94%0%0%
RB Leipzig2%65%0%0%
Bayer Leverkusen1%54%<1%<1%
SC Freiburg<1%34%<1%<1%
VfB Stuttgart<1%29%<1%<1%
Werder Bremen<1%5%2%1%
Eintracht Frankfurt<1%5%2%2%
SV Elversberg<1%6%1%1%
TSG Hoffenheim0%4%2%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Bundesliga title?

Bayern Munich, at 81%, ahead of Borussia Dortmund (15%), RB Leipzig (2%) and Bayer Leverkusen (1%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Bundesliga games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: FC Cologne at Bayern Munich (20 November 2026): Bayern Munich 87%, a draw 9%; SC Freiburg at SV Elversberg (21 November 2026): SV Elversberg 38%, a draw 29%; Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach (21 November 2026): Borussia Dortmund 61%, a draw 23%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Bundesliga predictions?

On 693 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 52% of the time. Its log loss was 0.990, against 1.077 for the base rate and 1.024 for recent form, and 0.970 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.976 against the bookmakers' 0.973 over 219 games, 0.964 against Polymarket's 0.953 over 376 games and 0.963 against Kalshi's 0.954 over 387 games (lower is better).

How are the Bundesliga predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Bundesliga title odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.