Football · 2026–27 season
Bundesliga forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the title odds. Favourite right now: Bayern Munich, 74%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | Werder Bremen at Borussia Dortmund | 73% | 17% | 10% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | VfB Stuttgart at SC Paderborn 07 | 19% | 25% | 56% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | SV Elversberg at 1. FC Union Berlin | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen at Mainz | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Bayern Munich at FC Augsburg | 13% | 20% | 66% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Hamburg SV at TSG Hoffenheim | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Eintracht Frankfurt at RB Leipzig | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Borussia Mönchengladbach at FC Cologne | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Schalke 04 at SC Freiburg | 63% | 22% | 15% |
| 16 Oct 2026 | FC Cologne at Eintracht Frankfurt | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | FC Augsburg at SV Elversberg | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Mainz at Schalke 04 | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | SC Paderborn 07 at Werder Bremen | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | VfB Stuttgart at Hamburg SV | 24% | 27% | 49% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | Borussia Dortmund at 1. FC Union Berlin | 16% | 23% | 61% |
| 17 Oct 2026 | RB Leipzig at Bayern Munich | 71% | 18% | 11% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | TSG Hoffenheim at SC Paderborn 07 | 1–3 | 24% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | SV Elversberg at Schalke 04 | 0–0 | 29% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | RB Leipzig at Bayer Leverkusen | 0–2 | 48% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Borussia Dortmund at VfB Stuttgart | 1–0 | 36% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | FC Augsburg at Werder Bremen | 2–3 | 38% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | FC Cologne at Hamburg SV | 1–2 | 44% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Mainz at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 4–3 | 35% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | SC Freiburg at Eintracht Frankfurt | 2–2 | 29% |
Chance of winning the title
| Team | Win title | Top four | Relegation play-off | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich | 74% | 99% | 0% | 0% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 21% | 94% | 0% | 0% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | 3% | 64% | <1% | <1% |
| RB Leipzig | 1% | 36% | <1% | <1% |
| VfB Stuttgart | <1% | 32% | <1% | <1% |
| SC Freiburg | <1% | 28% | 1% | <1% |
| Mainz | <1% | 12% | 2% | 1% |
| SV Elversberg | <1% | 10% | 2% | 2% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | <1% | 8% | 3% | 3% |
| FC Augsburg | <1% | 7% | 3% | 2% |