Week 11 · 14 Nov 2026 · Scott Stadium
California at Virginia
We have Virginia at 73.1% and California at 26.9%.
Ratings going in: Virginia 1879, California 1751, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 9°C, wind 17 km/h (gusts 27).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Virginia | California |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 73.1% | 26.9% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| Polymarket | 78.5% | 21.5% |
| Kalshi | 78.5% | 21.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: California LWLLL, Virginia LWLLL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win California at Virginia?
PodiumOracle's model makes Virginia the favourite at 73%, with California at 27%. The markets give Virginia 79% on Polymarket, 79% on Kalshi and 78% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 73% favourite still loses 27% of the time.
When and where is California at Virginia?
14 November 2026, at Scott Stadium (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.