PodiumOracle College football

American football · 2026 season

College football forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the national championship odds. Favourite right now: Georgia, 33%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayHome
12 Nov 2026Buffalo at Ball State75%25%
12 Nov 2026Sacramento State at Central Michigan15%85%
12 Nov 2026Massachusetts at Toledo7%93%
13 Nov 2026Memphis at South Florida53%47%
13 Nov 2026Louisiana at UL Monroe81%19%
14 Nov 2026Arizona State at UCF59%41%
14 Nov 2026Baylor at BYU27%73%
14 Nov 2026Cincinnati at Iowa State45%55%
14 Nov 2026Kansas at West Virginia28%72%
14 Nov 2026Kansas State at TCU29%71%
14 Nov 2026Texas Tech at Oklahoma State77%23%
14 Nov 2026Utah at Arizona70%30%
14 Nov 2026Missouri at Georgia9%91%
14 Nov 2026Florida at Kentucky35%65%
14 Nov 2026Texas at LSU71%29%
14 Nov 2026Ole Miss at Oklahoma58%42%
14 Nov 2026Tennessee at Texas A&M70%30%
14 Nov 2026Louisville at North Carolina70%30%
14 Nov 2026Stanford at Virginia Tech26%74%
14 Nov 2026Florida State at Pittsburgh43%57%
14 Nov 2026Illinois at UCLA35%65%
14 Nov 2026Houston at Colorado88%12%
14 Nov 2026Auburn at Mississippi State62%38%
14 Nov 2026Duke at Miami13%87%
14 Nov 2026Syracuse at NC State29%71%
14 Nov 2026Wake Forest at SMU43%57%
14 Nov 2026Wisconsin at Maryland83%17%
14 Nov 2026Northwestern at Ohio State13%87%
14 Nov 2026James Madison at UConn78%22%
14 Nov 2026Georgia Tech at Clemson9%91%
14 Nov 2026Nebraska at Rutgers77%23%
14 Nov 2026Alabama at Vanderbilt86%14%
14 Nov 2026East Carolina at Charlotte87%13%
14 Nov 2026UAB at Temple66%34%
14 Nov 2026Arkansas State at Coastal Carolina56%44%
14 Nov 2026Tulane at Rice79%21%
14 Nov 2026Kennesaw State at Sam Houston77%23%
14 Nov 2026New Mexico State at Missouri State39%61%
14 Nov 2026Florida International at Delaware34%66%
14 Nov 2026Boston College at Notre Dame2%98%
14 Nov 2026California at Virginia27%73%
14 Nov 2026USC at Indiana17%83%
14 Nov 2026Michigan at Oregon16%84%
14 Nov 2026Florida Atlantic at Tulsa49%51%
14 Nov 2026Nevada at Northern Illinois79%21%
14 Nov 2026Georgia Southern at Georgia State70%30%
14 Nov 2026Jacksonville State at Western Kentucky80%20%
14 Nov 2026Middle Tennessee at Liberty11%89%
14 Nov 2026Fresno State at Texas State28%72%
14 Nov 2026Washington at Michigan State70%30%
14 Nov 2026Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech10%90%
14 Nov 2026Oregon State at Boise State9%91%
14 Nov 2026App State at Marshall25%75%
15 Nov 2026Minnesota at Penn State23%77%
15 Nov 2026San José State at Air Force14%86%
15 Nov 2026Troy at South Alabama38%62%
15 Nov 2026Purdue at Iowa5%95%
15 Nov 2026UNLV at New Mexico22%78%
15 Nov 2026South Carolina at Arkansas84%16%
15 Nov 2026North Texas at UTSA45%55%
15 Nov 2026Utah State at San Diego State49%51%
15 Nov 2026Wyoming at UTEP91%9%
15 Nov 2026Colorado State at Washington State35%66%
15 Nov 2026North Dakota State at Hawai'i81%19%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
8 Nov 2026Texas State at Oregon State42–2156%
8 Nov 2026Wyoming at UNLV41–3526%
8 Nov 2026West Virginia at Texas Tech48–5390%
8 Nov 2026Fresno State at Utah State10–1729%
8 Nov 2026Hawai'i at UTEP17–1478%
8 Nov 2026Liberty at New Mexico State30–1484%
8 Nov 2026Oklahoma at Florida23–752%
8 Nov 2026Georgia at Ole Miss42–761%
8 Nov 2026Colorado at Arizona State10–2079%
8 Nov 2026Louisville at Georgia Tech44–1786%
8 Nov 2026Miami at Notre Dame24–3141%
8 Nov 2026Michigan State at Michigan15–67%

Chance of winning the national championship

Every team

TeamBest record in conferenceMake playoffFirst-round byeSemifinalTitle gameWin title
Georgia98%98%74%72%50%33%
Indiana67%97%68%64%37%21%
Miami84%99%65%55%27%12%
Notre Dame100%99%60%53%25%11%
Utah94%>99%84%54%26%9%
Texas1%59%1%25%15%8%
Texas Tech5%87%14%22%7%2%
Iowa3%49%0%8%3%1%
UCLA30%86%25%18%4%1%
Tennessee1%31%<1%5%2%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026 national championship?

Georgia, at 33%, ahead of Indiana (21%), Miami (12%) and Notre Dame (11%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next College football games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Buffalo at Ball State (12 November 2026): Buffalo 75%; Sacramento State at Central Michigan (12 November 2026): Central Michigan 85%; Massachusetts at Toledo (12 November 2026): Toledo 93%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's College football predictions?

On 10,786 games from held-back seasons (2024 to 2026), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 75% of the time. Its log loss was 0.489, against 0.682 for the base rate and 0.561 for recent form, and 0.463 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.539 against the bookmakers' 0.493 over 1,037 games, 0.537 against Polymarket's 0.500 over 2,133 games and 0.513 against Kalshi's 0.476 over 2,105 games (lower is better).

How are the College football predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the national championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.