How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 8694 | 0.487 | 76% |
| Base rate | 8694 | 0.679 | 58% |
| Recent form | 8694 | 0.564 | 70% |
| Betting market | 2184 | 0.450 | 77% |
Every FBS game since 2001 moves the ratings, and so do FBS teams' games against FCS opponents; a team new to the file starts 200 points below average. Only FBS teams appear in the tables and the playoff.
The playoff simulation takes the best-record team in each conference as its champion (conference title games are not simulated yet), puts the five best of those in, fills seven at-large places, and seeds by simulated wins and then rating. The committee's judgement is not modelled.
The market comparison uses the closing spread, turned into a win probability with a 15.5-point spread of outcomes.
Recruiting talent moves each team's preseason rating; returning production (how much of last season's team is back) is not used yet.
Conference title games and the committee's ranking are approximated.