Week 11 · 14 Nov 2026 · Kenan Stadium
Louisville at North Carolina
We have North Carolina at 30.1% and Louisville at 69.9%.
Ratings going in: North Carolina 1912, Louisville 2104, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 11°C, wind 16 km/h (gusts 22).
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | North Carolina | Louisville |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 30.1% | 69.9% |
| Kalshi | 40.5% | 59.5% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Louisville LWWWW, North Carolina WWLLW.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Louisville at North Carolina?
PodiumOracle's model makes Louisville the favourite at 70%, with North Carolina at 30%. The markets give Louisville 61% on Polymarket, 60% on Kalshi and 60% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 70% favourite still loses 30% of the time.
When and where is Louisville at North Carolina?
14 November 2026, at Kenan Stadium (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.