Week 11 · 12 Nov 2026 · Scheumann Stadium
Buffalo at Ball State
We have Ball State at 24.6% and Buffalo at 75.4%.
Ratings going in: Ball State 1409, Buffalo 1648, plus 45 for playing at home.
Weather forecast: 13°C, wind 11 km/h (gusts 23), rain 0.5 mm/h.
How the markets have moved so far
Each source's latest price, as a chance with the bookmaker's margin taken out. The model's forecast never uses them.
| Source | Ball State | Buffalo |
|---|---|---|
| The model | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Bookmakers (3 books) | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Polymarket | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Kalshi | 49.0% | 51.0% |
Form coming in
Last five results before this game: Buffalo LWWWW, Ball State LLWWL.
The teams
Questions and answers
Who will win Buffalo at Ball State?
PodiumOracle's model makes Buffalo the favourite at 75%, with Ball State at 25%. The markets give Buffalo 52% on Polymarket, 51% on Kalshi and 52% on the bookmakers. It's a chance, not a certainty: a 75% favourite still loses 25% of the time.
When and where is Buffalo at Ball State?
12 November 2026, at Scheumann Stadium (Week 11). The chances update until the start, and live during the game where there's a live feed.