How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 126 | 0.580 | 76% |
| Base rate | 126 | 0.630 | 72% |
| Recent form | 126 | 0.593 | 72% |
Ratings use every game in the related competitions (see Sources); only Champions Cup games are scored in the track record.
The simulated table adds bonus points the union way: four for a win, two for a draw, one for losing by seven or less, one for four tries (at each side's usual rate).
International call-ups during the Six Nations and test windows weaken clubs unevenly; the model doesn't know who is away.