How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 138 | 0.590 | 77% |
| Base rate | 138 | 0.651 | 72% |
| Recent form | 138 | 0.602 | 72% |
Against the betting markets
Each market's price before the start, scored on the same finished games as the model. A negative figure means the market was more accurate.
| Market | Since | Priced | Model log loss | Market log loss | Model vs market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 11 Jan 2026 | 37 | 0.747 | 0.647 | −15.4% |
Ratings use every game in the related competitions (see Sources); only Champions Cup games are scored in the track record.
The simulated table adds bonus points the union way: four for a win, two for a draw, one for losing by seven or less, one for four tries (at each side's usual rate).
International call-ups during the Six Nations and test windows weaken clubs unevenly; the model doesn't know who is away.
Questions and answers
How accurate are PodiumOracle's Champions Cup predictions?
On 138 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 77% of the time. Its log loss was 0.590, against 0.651 for the base rate and 0.602 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.747 against Polymarket's 0.647 over 37 games (lower is better).