PodiumOracle Champions Cup

Rugby union · 2026–27 season

Champions Cup forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Champions Cup odds. Favourite right now: Leinster, 30%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
11 Dec 2026Pau at Glasgow Warriors25%3%72%
11 Dec 2026Northampton Saints at Stade Français Paris48%3%48%
12 Dec 2026Stade Toulousain at Lions63%3%34%
12 Dec 2026Clermont Auvergne at Leicester Tigers11%1%88%
12 Dec 2026Bulls at Montpellier Hérault26%3%71%
12 Dec 2026Sale Sharks at Leinster4%1%95%
12 Dec 2026La Rochelle at Saracens31%3%66%
12 Dec 2026Munster at Bristol Rugby28%3%69%
12 Dec 2026Bath Rugby at Cardiff Blues32%3%65%
13 Dec 2026Connacht at Exeter Chiefs38%3%59%
13 Dec 2026Stormers at Bordeaux Bègles38%3%58%
13 Dec 2026Gloucester Rugby at Racing 9241%3%55%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
18 Oct 2026Leicester Tigers at Pau17–4168%
18 Oct 2026Exeter Chiefs at Stade Toulousain40–4388%
18 Oct 2026Cardiff Blues at Northampton Saints12–2884%
17 Oct 2026Glasgow Warriors at Sale Sharks47–2753%
17 Oct 2026Stade Français Paris at Bulls20–5673%
17 Oct 2026Leinster at Clermont Auvergne48–2358%
17 Oct 2026Bristol Rugby at Stormers12–4974%
17 Oct 2026Saracens at Connacht36–4555%
17 Oct 2026Lions at La Rochelle14–3174%
17 Oct 2026Racing 92 at Munster25–3372%
17 Oct 2026Montpellier Hérault at Bath Rugby32–1428%
16 Oct 2026Bordeaux Bègles at Gloucester Rugby36–363%

Chance of winning the Champions Cup

Every team

TeamReach last 16Quarter-finalSemi-finalReach finalWin
Leinster>99%85%60%42%30%
Glasgow Warriors>99%71%38%19%12%
Montpellier Hérault98%71%47%25%10%
Stormers100%67%37%21%9%
Bulls100%64%31%19%9%
Stade Toulousain83%58%34%16%7%
Pau>99%49%20%10%5%
Northampton Saints90%54%24%11%4%
Leicester Tigers86%29%19%9%4%
Bordeaux Bègles68%40%18%6%3%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Champions Cup?

Leinster, at 30%, ahead of Glasgow Warriors (12%), Montpellier Hérault (10%) and Stormers (9%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next Champions Cup games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Pau at Glasgow Warriors (11 December 2026): Glasgow Warriors 72%, a draw 3%; Northampton Saints at Stade Français Paris (11 December 2026): Stade Français Paris 48%, a draw 3%; Stade Toulousain at Lions (12 December 2026): Stade Toulousain 63%, a draw 3%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's Champions Cup predictions?

On 138 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 77% of the time. Its log loss was 0.590, against 0.651 for the base rate and 0.602 for recent form. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 0.747 against Polymarket's 0.647 over 37 games (lower is better).

How are the Champions Cup predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Champions Cup odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.