How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1209 | 1.048 | 45% |
| Base rate | 1209 | 1.077 | 44% |
| Recent form | 1209 | 1.065 | 44% |
| Betting market | 1199 | 1.036 | 47% |
A draw is its own outcome: the model has a band around an even contest in which a draw is the likeliest single result, fit on the tuning seasons.
The market comparison uses the bookmakers' closing odds with their margin taken out.
Parachute payments give relegated Premier League clubs a head start the ratings only learn from results.
Team news and injuries are not in the model.
Expected goals are not in the rating yet; it learns only from results.