PodiumOracle EFL Championship

Football · 2026–27 season

EFL Championship forecasts

Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Championship odds. Favourite right now: Wolverhampton Wanderers, 19%.

Upcoming

DateGameAwayDrawHome
21 Nov 2026Derby County at Southampton14%21%65%
21 Nov 2026Cardiff City at Norwich City21%26%54%
21 Nov 2026Queens Park Rangers at Millwall30%29%41%
21 Nov 2026Charlton Athletic at Wolverhampton Wanderers15%22%64%
21 Nov 2026Preston North End at West Ham United13%21%66%
21 Nov 2026West Bromwich Albion at Swansea City31%29%40%
21 Nov 2026Birmingham City at Stoke City35%29%35%
21 Nov 2026Watford at Sheffield United21%26%53%
21 Nov 2026Bristol City at Middlesbrough18%24%57%
21 Nov 2026Wrexham at Lincoln City36%29%35%
21 Nov 2026Portsmouth at Bolton Wanderers43%29%28%
22 Nov 2026Blackburn Rovers at Burnley24%27%49%
24 Nov 2026Southampton at Sheffield United41%29%30%
24 Nov 2026West Ham United at Portsmouth38%29%32%
24 Nov 2026Queens Park Rangers at Norwich City25%28%47%
24 Nov 2026Swansea City at Middlesbrough24%28%48%

Recent results

All results

DateGameScorePre-game chance of the winner
7 Nov 2026Millwall at West Bromwich Albion0–345%
7 Nov 2026Middlesbrough at Watford0–028%
7 Nov 2026Lincoln City at Queens Park Rangers1–248%
7 Nov 2026Southampton at Preston North End0–117%
7 Nov 2026Sheffield United at Charlton Athletic1–229%
7 Nov 2026Burnley at Cardiff City4–531%
7 Nov 2026West Ham United at Blackburn Rovers1–228%
7 Nov 2026Swansea City at Birmingham City1–245%
7 Nov 2026Wolverhampton Wanderers at Wrexham1–129%
7 Nov 2026Stoke City at Portsmouth2–128%
7 Nov 2026Norwich City at Bristol City5–035%
6 Nov 2026Bolton Wanderers at Derby County1–346%

Chance of winning the Championship

Every team

TeamWin titleAutomatic promotionPlay-offsPromotedRelegated
Wolverhampton Wanderers19%33%40%44%<1%
Middlesbrough18%32%40%42%<1%
Southampton17%31%41%44%<1%
Birmingham City15%29%41%39%<1%
West Bromwich Albion8%18%38%27%<1%
West Ham United8%18%37%29%<1%
Swansea City4%10%31%16%<1%
Stoke City4%10%29%16%<1%
Norwich City2%6%24%12%<1%
Queens Park Rangers2%4%18%8%1%

Questions and answers

Who is favoured to win the 2026–27 Championship?

Wolverhampton Wanderers, at 19%, ahead of Middlesbrough (18%), Southampton (17%) and Birmingham City (15%). That's from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season with PodiumOracle's current ratings, updated 12 November 2026.

What are the odds for the next EFL Championship games?

According to PodiumOracle's model: Derby County at Southampton (21 November 2026): Southampton 65%, a draw 21%; Cardiff City at Norwich City (21 November 2026): Norwich City 54%, a draw 26%; Queens Park Rangers at Millwall (21 November 2026): Millwall 41%, a draw 29%. Every upcoming one's chances are on this page and update until the start.

How accurate are PodiumOracle's EFL Championship predictions?

On 1,294 games from held-back seasons (2024–25 to 2026–27), which the model never saw while it was tuned, the side it favoured won 45% of the time. Its log loss was 1.048, against 1.075 for the base rate and 1.062 for recent form, and 1.034 for the closing betting odds. Against the betting markets on the same finished games, its log loss was 1.054 against the bookmakers' 1.031 over 417 games, 1.052 against Polymarket's 1.034 over 617 games and 1.052 against Kalshi's 1.033 over 594 games (lower is better).

How are the EFL Championship predictions made?

Every team has a rating that moves after each result, by more when the result was a surprise. The gap between two ratings, plus home advantage, gives each game's chance, and the rest of the season is simulated 10,000 times, with the league's own format, for the Championship odds. The settings are chosen on older seasons and tested on the most recent ones.