Football · 2026–27 season
EFL Championship forecasts
Win probabilities for every game from a rating model fit only on past results, with the season simulated 10,000 times for the Championship odds. Favourite right now: West Ham United, 26%.
Upcoming
| Date | Game | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Oct 2026 | Queens Park Rangers at West Ham United | 57% | 25% | 19% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Birmingham City at West Bromwich Albion | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Norwich City at Swansea City | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Bristol City at Charlton Athletic | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Burnley at Watford | 28% | 29% | 44% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Lincoln City at Sheffield United | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Millwall at Preston North End | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Wolverhampton Wanderers at Middlesbrough | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Wrexham at Derby County | 37% | 29% | 34% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Stoke City at Bolton Wanderers | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Cardiff City at Blackburn Rovers | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | Portsmouth at Southampton | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | West Bromwich Albion at Wrexham | 44% | 29% | 28% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Bolton Wanderers at Wolverhampton Wanderers | 68% | 20% | 12% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Swansea City at Millwall | 39% | 29% | 31% |
| 13 Oct 2026 | Watford at Cardiff City | 41% | 29% | 30% |
Recent results
| Date | Game | Score | Pre-game chance of the winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | Bolton Wanderers at Norwich City | 4–3 | 15% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | West Bromwich Albion at Wolverhampton Wanderers | 0–1 | 52% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Southampton at Wrexham | 1–2 | 30% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Preston North End at Queens Park Rangers | 2–2 | 27% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Blackburn Rovers at Portsmouth | 2–2 | 29% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Swansea City at Lincoln City | 2–1 | 34% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Derby County at Burnley | 1–1 | 25% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Middlesbrough at Birmingham City | 2–2 | 29% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Sheffield United at Stoke City | 1–2 | 38% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | West Ham United at Millwall | 2–2 | 29% |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Charlton Athletic at Cardiff City | 1–3 | 37% |
Chance of winning the Championship
| Team | Win title | Automatic promotion | Play-offs | Promoted | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham United | 26% | 43% | 35% | 53% | <1% |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 23% | 39% | 36% | 49% | <1% |
| Southampton | 12% | 25% | 38% | 37% | <1% |
| Swansea City | 12% | 23% | 37% | 32% | <1% |
| Middlesbrough | 11% | 22% | 37% | 31% | <1% |
| Millwall | 3% | 7% | 23% | 13% | 3% |
| West Bromwich Albion | 3% | 6% | 23% | 11% | 3% |
| Burnley | 2% | 5% | 21% | 11% | 4% |
| Wrexham | 2% | 5% | 19% | 9% | 4% |
| Birmingham City | 2% | 4% | 18% | 9% | 4% |