How good are these forecasts?
Every forecast scored on seasons the model never saw while its settings were chosen.
Held-back seasons
| Forecast | Forecasts | Log loss | Favourite won |
|---|---|---|---|
| The model | 1263 | 0.635 | 64% |
| Base rate | 1263 | 0.703 | 53% |
| Recent form | 1263 | 0.680 | 59% |
Every nation is rated on all its men's one-day internationals, Elo-style, with the margin of victory (a win by wickets counts about 12 runs a wicket).
A season here is a World Cup cycle: every international from the day after one final to the next. Bilateral series are forecast and rated but aren't in the event's table.
The 2027 Men's Cricket World Cup is simulated in full in every run: two groups of seven play each other once (two points a win), the top three in each group go through to a Super Six against the other group's three, then semi-finals (first v fourth, second v third) and the final. Points carried into the Super Six are approximated as a third of each side's group points.
The field isn't settled yet, so this is a provisional one: the hosts and the nations that would qualify on today's ratings, seeded into groups by rating. It changes as results come in and will be replaced by the real draw once it's announced.
South Africa, Zimbabwe and Namibia host the 2027 World Cup in October and November 2027. South Africa and Zimbabwe qualify as hosts; Namibia, though a co-host, has to qualify. The rest of the field is the top eight in the ODI rankings at the cut-off plus four from the qualifier, so until then the field here is provisional: the two hosts, the eight best-rated other full members, and the four best-rated of the rest.
Every international is treated as neutral: home advantage isn't modelled, because the archive doesn't say who was at home. That flatters touring sides a little.
Squad selection (rested stars, part-time associate sides) is not in the model.
The Champions Trophy (next in India in 2029) is played by the top eight ODI sides; it isn't simulated here yet.
The champion record replays past World Cups from the archive, so a match abandoned without a result (or one the archive is missing) isn't in the replay, and sides level on points are split by run margins rather than net run rate: a replayed group can finish in a different order from the real one. An edition whose knockouts the archive can't piece together is left out.